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This report considers the estimation of statistical parameters and their
application to production planning in the aero-engine industry. A similar pattern
of behaviour to that already recognised as existing in the airframe industry is
found to operate, though there are indications of quantitative differences.
The build-up time to the planned peak rate of production in a particular
situation is found to be about eighteen months but with variation between firms.
The reduction in operator performance time, which occurs with repetition during
the build-up period and afterwards, is discovered to be present in machining as
well as assembly, but to a lesser extent. The logarithmic function generally
descriptive of such a tendency is found to fit the actual man-hour content values
rather than the cumulative average ones. The relationship between the logistic
of output and the logarithmic function is established and made use of to estimate
labour requirements from the commencement of production onwards.
In addition to the above consideration of production variables, examples
are given of the use of engine performance ratings to estimate costs. Finally,
because of the importance of planning to productivity, a typical production
programme has been included. |
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